Traders expect AAPL to continue soaring
The Q3 2023 Trader Sentiment Survey is complete and there are quite a few interesting pieces of data that we can see from the trader community. Overall, the community has a positive outlook.
For starters, let’s look at some of the community statistics.
Within the survey respondents there was a majority of traders that have been trading over 5 years (56.08%). It is interesting to note that since the last survey was conducted the percentage of traders who are new (less than one year trading) has stayed the same however the makeup of those traders flipped this quarter with traders who have been at it fewer than six months doubling those between the six months to a year experience. So it’s safe to say that many people are starting to trade for the first time while others have left after six months. There isn’t enough data from quarter to quarter to see if this is a trend however it is something that we will be looking forward to reviewing following the next survey.
It appears from the responses that trading is a consistent activity for two-thirds of the community. One third of traders spend between 1 and 3 hours per day at their trading stations. Another third trade for half a day or more.
Over half of the traders in the survey have learned their trading skills by taking online classes. Very few traders (5.56%) learned to trade through academia.
Live webinars and training sessions lead the way with 59.26% of traders using this format. Over 22% of respondents prefer one on one training with a mentor.
Compared to the last survey it seems like people are spending more time honing their trading skills. In the last survey, one in five spent less than an hour per week improving their skills while this quarter that has dropped by about 5%. Traders are increasing the time they spend learning new skills and strategies. About 55% of traders spend over 3 hours per week improving their trading skills versus 45% in the last survey.
And now for some predictions:
When it comes to the chances of the S&P 500 closing at or above 4,500 and the NDX closing at or above 15,000 on September 29th we see a “Bullish Bell Curve” with about a third of the survey respondents unsure and just over 41% thinking it will happen.
As for individual stock predictions:
From the list that was provided in the survey AAPL comes out on top with about 20% of responses suggesting that it will be the top performer. TSLA and META were close behind. Uncertainty abounds though in the “other” category with most of those responses specifying that they have no clue.
Let’s look at sector predictions:
Well it looks like traders are bullish on Energy and Technology with the two categories taking ⅔ of the responses to this question.
Now some interesting takeaways:
When we narrow the data to those traders that are seemingly the most experienced we see that they are also the most positive.
When referencing the traders that have been trading for more than 5 years we see that over the last quarter their trading account balance has largely increased in value (68.33%) or at the very least stayed the same (23.33%). It’s also interesting to note that this same segment is extremely positive in that 93.33% expect their account balance to increase over the next quarter and the remaining 6.67% expect their account to stay about the same.
Boosting knowledge is also important…
Looking at the data we see that when traders spend more than three hours per week improving their craft as a trader they:
- Typically have a higher increase in their accounts and less losses (57.62% reporting gains over the last quarter while 5.08% reported losses)
- Are more positive about the next quarter with 88.13% expecting their balances to increase.
It is also interesting to note that 11.13% of traders that spend fewer than 3 hours per week improving their craft reported losses.
As the quarter closes we will see which segment of the survey performed best in the predictions. Will it be the long time traders that spend hours each week improving their craft or will the new traders have the best predictions.
Stay tuned for results the first week of October.
Dan Passarelli
Founder and President
Market Taker Mentoring
2 Responses
Mr. Passarelli, thank you for this paper, also your insight into the market and your excellent explanations of options. I have your book Trading Option Greeks which I find to be very helpful.
Thank you.
Thanks, Carlo!